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2012 South Carolina Primary

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There is an important primary in South Carolina today, are you praying about it?

Polling averages expect Gingrich to get 32%, Romney 30%, Paul 13% and Santorum 11%. The highest recent poll shows Santorum with only 15%.

My wild speculation is that Santorum will be around 20%, Paul won’t quite have 13%, and Romney will edge out Gingrich.

Enhanced by ZemantaNow that 99% of the precincts are reporting, how did I do?
I was very wrong about Romney winning.  Paul didn’t do as poorly as I expected, but also didn’t do better than I expected.  Santorum didn’t do quite as well as I expected, but he did do better than the polling indicated (as always seems to be the case for conservatives).
Here is how the candidates did compared to their polling average just before the election:
Gingrich 40%, +8%
Romney 28%, -2%
Santorum 17%, +6%
Paul 13%, +0%
I had wondered if the spectacular performances Gingrich had in the last two debates would help him, but I don’t think I put enough stock in them.  They seem to have had a very positive effect that the polls couldn’t reflect yet.  Santorum had a pretty good debate performance, but I think his difference is more due to the fact that social conservatives always seem to get more votes than their polling would indicate.
Something that really surprised me was how many people voted for candidates that had already dropped out of the race.  10,479 people as of when I write this.  I can perhaps understand some diehard supporters of the candidates that dropped out recently given absentee ballots and/or early voting, but Herman Cain who has long been out of the race garnered 6,315 votes or 1% of the total.  Huh?
Categories: Uncategorized
  1. January 18, 2013 at 4:23 am

    Wow. Why do Republicans always mix up primary polling with general election polling? You “caught” PPP sampling Republicans in a poll measuring the support of Republicans for the various candidates. What a sleuth!

    • Leigh Riffel
      January 18, 2013 at 9:10 am

      Probably for the same reason others reply to content that doesn’t exist in a post.

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